Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
